The book doesn't forecast, but the state's own published series have a direction, and the direction is why the one page this book asks for has a clock on it.
The receipts
The source list for this chapter, as the publisher maintains it. Archive links are given wherever a cited page could move or die.
- Every series above is printed, sourced and dated in the chapters that carry it: pay, productivity, investment and the project portfolio in Chapter 20; debt and the deficit in Chapter 27; the waiting list in Chapters 27 and 28; the life-expectancy gap in Chapter 20; government effectiveness in Chapters 19 and 20. No new figure is introduced here.
- The red-share series, 12 to 15 to 18 per cent: IPA Annual Report on Major Projects 2023-24 (January 2025) and NISTA Annual Reports 2024-25 (11 August 2025) and 2025-26 (13 July 2026), read directly, item 8 and the editions table.
- UK Trajectory Review, resources.grabstack.com/uk-review: the author's own companion site, and described as such; it continues these series past this edition's cut-off.
Found a broken link or a fact that doesn't hold? Tell the publisher.